A constant-churn gross-contribution approximation—not a cohort forecast or an ad-bid recommendation.
Planning estimate only. Platform fees, taxes, payment costs, and policies can change; verify current terms before pricing.
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How this calculator works
Formula
Annual gross contribution = average order value × purchases per year × gross margin. Approximate lifetime years = 1 ÷ annual churn. LTV = annual gross contribution × lifetime years. Planning CAC ceiling = LTV ÷ target LTV:CAC ratio.
Worked example
$50 orders, four purchases per year, 60% margin, and 20% annual churn produce $600 modeled gross-contribution LTV and a $200 planning CAC ceiling at a 3:1 target.
Assumptions to verify
- Annual churn remains constant and greater than zero.
- Order value, frequency, and gross margin remain constant.
- The CAC result is a planning ceiling before overhead, payback timing, discounting, refunds, and cohort variation—not an ad bid.
Frequently asked questions
Is this predictive cohort LTV?
No. It is a simple constant-churn gross-contribution approximation.
Why use gross margin?
Revenue LTV ignores fulfillment and variable costs; contribution is more useful for acquisition planning.
Should I bid the CAC ceiling?
No. It is a planning boundary before overhead, cash timing, uncertainty, and channel economics.
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